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Home sales soar, prices fall in Beaufort, Hilton Head Island | islandpacket.com

Home sales soar, prices fall in Beaufort, Hilton Head Island | islandpacket.com.

This is the effect of foreclosures in the market.  As each foreclosure sells, the overall value of the neighborhood diminishes, leaving more and more of the rest of the residents that much more underwater on their mortgage.  Turns into a real vicious cycle.

Several places in the state counties are going after Boeing related industries… what are we doing in Beaufort county?  We have an industrial park minutes from the air station, and a highly trained retired and former Marine aviation pool of labor.  Seems like it would be a pretty good match, don’t you think?


New Stats

Ok, first month of the year, and we have a couple trends that may be changing…

First, let’s take a look at the existing inventory:

Existing Inventory of Active, Under Contract, and Solds

You can see that the inventory is starting to build since last years’ low in December.  The under contract number is finally headed back up too.  Last year, we averaged around 60 properties under contract week to week, so while 42 isn’t burning the barn down, it beats the 30 or so we have had since Christmas.

Absorption Rate

Absorption Rate

We are right about where we were this time last year.  The curve will be headed back up (lower is better) at the end of this month.  This in the face of reduced inventory from most of last year.

I was looking at some Lady’s Island comps last week when I was struck by the number of withdrawn houses.  These are houses that did not sell, went off the market, and so far have not been relisted.  Most of them had been off the market for quite awhile, several months at least.  Is this the shadow inventory we keep hearing about?  Will they emrge and foreclosures here in the coming months?  If so, they will reset the entire market even further down than it already is.  Great if you are a buyer, but could be calamitous if you are selling.

There are ways around this.  If you find yourself (or a friend is) ‘upside down’- that is you owe more on your house than what we could get on the market, and you need to sell, call me.  I have some ideas for you.

All in all, it is still a strong buyers market, and will be for the foreseeable future.  The first time buyer’s tax credit was extended, and there are now credits for the move up (or move down?) buyer.  Call me for detais.


Weekly Stats for Beaufort Real Estate

Updating the weekly stats- there is good news that our absorption rate has fallen to 16 months worth of inventory overall.

Absorption Rate

This is the absorption rate for areas 1-5 of the Beaufort MLS

As you can see, this is as low as it’s been since I started tracking the absorption rate at the beginning of this year.   I think it has more to do with falling inventory than a huge increase in sales, however.  When you look at the number of under contract listings, there is not as big a swing up on the trend line as there is a swing down in number of listings.

Existing Inventory Active, U/C, and Sold as of Nov 2, 2009

The trendline for the under contract properties is relatively flat compared to the decrease in the number of active listings.

I know the green solds bars look exciting, but that is a cumulative number.  We probably won’t even hit 500 transactions for the year compared to 937 for 2006, 702 in 2007, and 542 in 2008.  We are sitting at 385 residential sales in areas 1-5 year to date.

Ok, what do you think?  Are we at the bottom?  Let me know!