This is the effect of foreclosures in the market.  As each foreclosure sells, the overall value of the neighborhood diminishes, leaving more and more of the rest of the residents that much more underwater on their mortgage.  Turns into a real vicious cycle.

Several places in the state counties are going after Boeing related industries… what are we doing in Beaufort county?  We have an industrial park minutes from the air station, and a highly trained retired and former Marine aviation pool of labor.  Seems like it would be a pretty good match, don’t you think?

First, let’s take a look at the existing inventory:

Existing Inventory of Active, Under Contract, and Solds

You can see that the inventory is starting to build since last years’ low in December.  The under contract number is finally headed back up too.  Last year, we averaged around 60 properties under contract week to week, so while 42 isn’t burning the barn down, it beats the 30 or so we have had since Christmas.

Absorption Rate

We are right about where we were this time last year.  The curve will be headed back up (lower is better) at the end of this month.  This in the face of reduced inventory from most of last year.

I was looking at some Lady’s Island comps last week when I was struck by the number of withdrawn houses.  These are houses that did not sell, went off the market, and so far have not been relisted.  Most of them had been off the market for quite awhile, several months at least.  Is this the shadow inventory we keep hearing about?  Will they emrge and foreclosures here in the coming months?  If so, they will reset the entire market even further down than it already is.  Great if you are a buyer, but could be calamitous if you are selling.

There are ways around this.  If you find yourself (or a friend is) ‘upside down’- that is you owe more on your house than what we could get on the market, and you need to sell, call me.  I have some ideas for you.

All in all, it is still a strong buyers market, and will be for the foreseeable future.  The first time buyer’s tax credit was extended, and there are now credits for the move up (or move down?) buyer.  Call me for detais.

Thanks!

Marine Corp F 35 STOVL in flight.

While the other variants have flown for quite a while now,  this is the first article and photo that I’ve seen.  Come on and station them here!!

Resale Inventory as of Nov 30 2009

I actually expected a bigger spike in the under contract numbers as buyers cashed in on the $8000 tax credit available.   You can see the number of under contract properties starting a slight downward trend already.  Might just be a seasonal holiday thing.  Anecdotal evidence points to more traffic in the mid price ranges of $300-$400,ooo.  That is welcome news if that price point is starting to move.

Now let’s look at absorption rates:

Absorption Rate as of Nov 30 2009

I thought the rate would have come down a little reflecting the decline in the active inventory number, but I guess it doesn’t take much in the way of change of number of under contract properties to impact this.

Overall, the market seems busier.  We are getting more calls for appointments, and there are more sign and ad calls.  These are good things!  Let’s hope this is a trend beginning and not another spurt!

Anytime you want to see more of what is happening in the market, just go by BeaufortHomeTeam.com and search the current map or sign up for the market update.

From my family to yours, Happy Thanksgiving!

Again this year, I find my self overwhelmed with the blessings all around me.  True, the market is down; true, things are tight; but I am surrounded by a wife and kids that love me and that I love and that are healthy, friends that are like family, and a warm, dry home.   We live in the greatest country the world has ever seen, no one is shooting at us, and we have optimism and hope for the coming year.  Truely, the Lord’s lovingkindness surrounds us, inspite of ourselves.  How can we not be thankful?

To my customers and clients, thanks for making the year what it has been, couldn’t do it without you.  To readers, ditto, I’ll be a better contributor in the coming year.  Keep those FRIENDLY tips coming!  Thank you all from the bottom of my heart!

This is the absorption rate for areas 1-5 of the Beaufort MLS

As you can see, this is as low as it’s been since I started tracking the absorption rate at the beginning of this year.   I think it has more to do with falling inventory than a huge increase in sales, however.  When you look at the number of under contract listings, there is not as big a swing up on the trend line as there is a swing down in number of listings.

The trendline for the under contract properties is relatively flat compared to the decrease in the number of active listings.

I know the green solds bars look exciting, but that is a cumulative number.  We probably won’t even hit 500 transactions for the year compared to 937 for 2006, 702 in 2007, and 542 in 2008.  We are sitting at 385 residential sales in areas 1-5 year to date.

Ok, what do you think?  Are we at the bottom?  Let me know!

If you are still interested, here is the link!

Have a great weekend!

Check out the tour:

I golf about once a year, just to remind myself why I don’t do it more often.  But I know lots and lots of my friends love it, and knock yourself out!  If I have that kind of time, I’ll try and get a line wet…

Enjoy!

Don’t get me wrong… Sue does a great job with coupons… no kidding!  Usually she spends as much as she saves on groceries.  Sometimes she spends say $40 and walks out with $90 or more worth of groceries.  She has all the tricks down.  She does great and I love the way she stretches our money.

But 30 women talking coupons in my living room?  Marshall and I are the only males for maybe the whole block!  That’s OK, we’ll get by.  Think maybe we’ll go play Call of Duty on the X-Box or something…